The Promotion Nobody Should Be Surprised By

I have a simple test I apply whenever I'm considering promoting someone.

When I tell others on the leadership team that I'm recommending this person for promotion, what's their reaction? If it's "that makes sense - they're already doing that job," we're ready to move forward. If I find myself explaining, justifying, or defending the decision, something has gone wrong in the preparation.

That's it. That's the test.

It sounds almost too simple. But in practice, it's one of the most useful forcing functions I've found for making good promotion decisions - and for avoiding bad ones.

The Problem with Promotions as Rewards

In most organizations, promotions are treated primarily as rewards. Someone performs well at their current level long enough, and eventually they get bumped up. It's a recognition of past contribution, a way of saying thank you and we value you and here's more money or responsibility.

The trouble is that this framing disconnects the promotion from the actual question that matters: is this person ready to operate at the next level?

This is the trap that the psychologist Laurence Peter famously described - what's become known as the Peter Principle. Employees tend to be promoted based on their success in previous roles until they reach a level at which they're no longer effective. The skills that made someone excellent as a senior engineer don't automatically make them a great engineering manager. The qualities that made someone a strong team lead don't guarantee they'll thrive as a manager.

Promoting someone into a role they're not ready for isn't a reward. It's a setup - for them, for their team, and for the organization.

Promoting Into What They're Already Doing

The reframe I prefer: a promotion should reflect reality, not anticipate it. The right time to promote someone is when they're already operating at the next level - when the title is lagging behind the actual work.

This has a useful corollary: if someone isn't ready for promotion yet, the path forward is clear. Start giving them the responsibilities of the next level. Coach them actively. Let them demonstrate readiness over time. Then promote them when the recognition is just catching up to what everyone already knows to be true.

"Sawing the wood in front of you" is how I've heard this described - the idea that the best way to earn a promotion is to simply start doing the job. Not lobbying for it, not waiting for it, but growing into it organically until the title adjustment becomes obvious to everyone.

What "Nobody Is Surprised" Actually Requires

To pass the no-surprise test, a few things need to be true well before the promotion conversation happens.

The person needs visibility. If the only person that has seen this individual's growth is their direct manager, it will be nearly impossible to build consensus around a promotion. Great work needs to be seen - across teams, across levels. This is partly the employee's responsibility, and partly the manager's.

Expectations need to be explicit. You can't expect someone to grow into the next level if neither of you has ever clearly defined what that level looks like. What does a senior engineer do differently than a mid-level one? What does a director do that a manager doesn't? These criteria should be articulated early and revisited often.

Feedback needs to be ongoing, not saved for review cycles. If someone is surprised by critical feedback in a performance review, that's a failure of ongoing communication, and not a useful data point. Promotion readiness is built through near-real-time coaching, not annual assessments.

Peers need to be part of the picture. The no-surprise test isn't just about whether a manager thinks someone is ready. It's about whether the people who work alongside that person every day would nod along when they hear the news.

The Surprise Is the Signal

If you announce a promotion and someone pushes back with a response like, "really?" or, "already?", that's worth paying attention to. It might mean the person's contributions haven't been visible enough. It might mean there's a gap you haven't fully addressed. It might mean the promotion is genuinely premature. Whatever the reason, the surprise is telling you something.

Conversely, if the response you get is a shrug and a "yeah, obviously" - that's exactly where you want to be. The organization already knows. The promotion is just the paperwork catching up.